ACQR: A Novel Framework to Identify and Predict Influential Users in Micro-Blogging

As key roles of online social networks, influential users in micro-blogging have the ability to influence the attitudes or behaviour of others. When it comes to marketing, the users’ influence should be associated with a certain topic or field on which people have different levels of preference and expertise. In order to identify and predict influential users in a specific topic more effectively, users’ actual influential capability on a certain topic and potential influence unlimited by topics is combined into a novel comprehensive framework named “ACQR” in this research. ACQR framework depicts the attributes of the influentials from four aspects, including activeness (A), centrality (C), quality of post (Q) and reputation (R). Based on this framework, a data mining method is developed for discovering and forecasting the top influentials. Empirical results reveal that our ACQR framework and the data mining method by TOPSIS and SVMs (with polynomial and RBF kernels) can perform very well in identifying and predicting influential users in a certain topic (such as iPhone 5). Furthermore, the dynamic change processes of users’ influence from longitudinal perspective are analysed and suggestions to the sales managers are provided.